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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 18 at the 46

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(10:34) 16-J.Scott punts 39 yards to ARI 7, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by LAC-43-T.Dye. ARI-45-D.Gardeck was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.21 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model