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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 12 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 11-C.Dicker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +3.94 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model