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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 46

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:07) 12-B.Gillikin punts 36 yards to LAC 10, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT +0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model