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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 49
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3
What Actually Happened
(10:57) 23-K.Williams up the middle to LV 49 for no gain (39-N.Hobbs).
The Three Options
GO
+1.33 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.95 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
KICK
-1.08 EP
- 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
- 61% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT
-0.63 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.63 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
