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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 48

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(9:21) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.02 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model