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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 42-E.Evans punts 43 yards to LV 28, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP