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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 6 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(2:29) 2-D.Carlson 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.08 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 20, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model