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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 42

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(6:29) (Shotgun) 22-A.Mattison up the middle to LA 40 for 2 yards (37-Q.Lake).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.91 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model