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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 12 – Los Angeles Rams 20

What Actually Happened

(2:50) 2-D.Carlson 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 9, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model