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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 19 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(2:40) 42-E.Evans punts 41 yards to LV 24, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 23, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model