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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(14:53) 8-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.56 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model