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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 28

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.75 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model