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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(7:51) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP