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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 32

New York Jets 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-M.Williams to PIT 17 for 15 yards (25-D.Elliott) [99-L.Ogunjobi].

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.85 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK +0.61 EP
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model