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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 25

New York Jets 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 30

What Actually Happened

(7:56) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Adams (95-K.Benton).

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model