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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 30 – New York Jets 15

What Actually Happened

(2:44) 3-R.Wilson up the middle to NYJ 18 for 1 yard (54-J.Kinlaw). New York Jets challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +2.76 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.94 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model