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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 82-X.Gipson MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at NYJ 18.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.92 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP