Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 12 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) 8-C.Waitman punts 55 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (42-J.Pierre). FUMBLES (42-J.Pierre), ball out of bounds at NYJ 22.

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.36 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model