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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 80

New York Jets 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to PIT 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 19-C.Austin to PIT 34 for no gain (37-Q.Stiggers).

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.09 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model