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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 36

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 3

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 6-Y.Koo 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 36, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model