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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 20

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:09) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model