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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 14 – Seattle Seahawks 34

What Actually Happened

(6:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London pushed ob at ATL 48 for 12 yards (21-D.Witherspoon) [55-D.Jones].

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.77 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model