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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 17 at the 49

Seattle Seahawks 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 4-M.Dickson punts 37 yards to ATL 12, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model