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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 20-T.Pollard up the middle to TEN 41 for -3 yards (90-D.Carter, 9-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.63 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model