Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

(8:15) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 43 yards to BUF 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington ran ob at BUF 26 for 11 yards (46-M.Cox).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.07 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 58, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model