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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 53 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 44 for 14 yards (85-C.Okonkwo).

The Three Options

GO -3.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.39 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model