Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 70

Tennessee Titans 10 – Buffalo Bills 24

(14:38) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 29 for 7 yards (57-L.Gifford, 44-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.90 EP
67% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model