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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 12

Buffalo Bills 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:29) 2-T.Bass 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.27 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP