Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 8-S.Martin punts 39 yards to TEN 27, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Jackson to TEN 35 for 8 yards (69-R.Ferguson, 85-Q.Morris). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.46 EP
55% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model