Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 86

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 3

(9:32) 11-J.Stout punts 60 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 33 for 7 yards (49-C.Board).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.99 EP
58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model