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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 3 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(3:45) 7-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model