Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cleveland Browns 6

(2:08) 11-J.Stout punts 55 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 42 for 12 yards (16-T.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.24 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model