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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 32

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 9-J.Tucker 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.28 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.53 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model