Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 16-J.Darden to CLE 38 for 17 yards (49-C.Board). ** Injury Update: CLE-38-T.Brown has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.29 EP
65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model