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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 7

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:48) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry right guard to CLE 9 for -2 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah, 90-M.Hurst).

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 7, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model