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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 9

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(:40) 7-D.Hopkins 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.23 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 9, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP