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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 26

San Francisco 49ers 3 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 41-A.Carlson 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model