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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:53) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to SF 7, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-J.Cowing to SF 13 for 6 yards (80-R.Flournoy).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.35 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model