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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 10 – San Francisco 49ers 6

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 5-B.Anger punts 43 yards to SF 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.60 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model