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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 17 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(:20) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 45 yards to DAL 2, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.61 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP