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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 68

Dallas Cowboys 10 – San Francisco 49ers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to SF 9, Center-44-T.Sieg. 19-J.Cowing to SF 25 for 16 yards (44-T.Sieg; 40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.71 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model