Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 57

Dallas Cowboys 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

(13:41) 5-B.Anger punts 40 yards to SF 17, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 19-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.70 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model