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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 45

Dallas Cowboys 10 – San Francisco 49ers 27

What Actually Happened

(10:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 9-K.Turpin to SF 29 for 16 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.02 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model