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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 22

San Francisco 49ers 27 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 41-A.Carlson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model