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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 64

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Dallas Cowboys 24

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 39 yards to DAL 25, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-18-C.Conley.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.51 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model