Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 75

Dallas Cowboys 24 – San Francisco 49ers 30

(2:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 83-J.Brooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

What Happened

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.09 EP
64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 75, worth -2.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model