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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 32

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 41-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model