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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(11:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to JAX 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-P.Washington pushed ob at JAX 17 for 8 yards (39-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.46 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model