4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 73 yards to GB 2, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.63 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model