Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 67

Green Bay Packers 27 – Jacksonville Jaguars 20

(4:03) 19-D.Whelan punts 63 yards to JAX 4, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-P.Washington to JAX 13 for 9 yards (80-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.37 EP
56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model